The Calm Before the Storm

Why Volatility Signals Stability, and 
Vice Versa By Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton
 From our January/February 2015 Issue   The aftermath of an airstrike in Aleppo, November 2014. (Rami Zayat / Courtesy Reuters) Even as protests spread across the Middle East in early 2011, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria appeared immune…

Dabiq: What Islamic State’s New Magazine Tells Us about Their Strategic Direction, Recruitment Patterns and Guerrilla Doctrine

Publication: Volume: 0 Issue: 0 August 1, 2014 03:38 PM Age: 17 days By: Michael W. S. Ryan Dabiq Magazine (Source: Twitter user @umOmar246) Executive Summary On the first day of Ramadan (June 28), the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) declared itself the new Islamic State and the new Caliphate (Khilafah). For the…

ISIS Governance in Syria

  Download the PDF   By Charles C. Caris & Samuel Reynolds The Islamic State’s June 2014 announcement of a “caliphate” is not empty rhetoric. In fact, the idea of the caliphate that rests within a controlled territory is a core part of ISIS’s political vision. The ISIS grand strategy to realize this vision involves…

Dabiq: What Islamic State’s New Magazine Tells Us about Their Strategic Direction, Recruitment Patterns and Guerrilla Doctrine

Publication: Volume: 0 Issue: 0 August 1, 2014 03:38 PM Age: 9 hrs By: Michael W. S. Ryan   Dabiq Magazine (Source: Twitter user @umOmar246) Executive Summary On the first day of Ramadan (June 28), the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) declared itself the new Islamic State and the new Caliphate (Khilafah). For…

Who Is Mehdi Nemmouche?

America is ignoring the newest generation of European jihadists being forged in the crucible of the Syrian war. June 24, 2014 By John Rosenthal News that the suspected perpetrator of the Brussels Jewish Museum shooting is a French jihadist veteran of the Syrian war has added to what were already growing concerns about the dangers…

Analysis: Blowback from the Syrian jihad has begun

  By Lisa LundquistJune 4, 2014   As the Obama administration seeks to invest more heavily in training and arming ‘vetted, moderate’ rebels in Syria’s three-year civil war, a conflict that has already claimed over 150,000 lives and drawn the largest-ever concentration of foreign jihadists, the wisdom of this course becomes increasingly questionable. The US’…

Iranian Strategy in Syria ( May 2, 2013)

  By Will Fulton, Joseph Holliday, Sam Wyer May 2, 2013 Iranian President Ahmadinejad, Syrian President Assad, and Hezbollah’s Nasrallah appear together on a poster in Damascus, Syria. (Inter Press Service News Agency) This is a joint publication by AEI’s Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War. Executive Summary The Islamic…