Risky Business:
The Global Threat Network and the Politics of Contraband
Scott Helfstein
with John Solomon
THE COMBATING TERRORISM CENTER AT WEST POINT
http://www.ctc.usma.edu
May 2014
3 Contents
Author Acknowledgments ………………………………………………………………….. 5
Executive Summary ………………………………………………………………………….. 6.
Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………….. 10
The Convergence Debate ……………………………………………………………………..15
Crime and Terrorism ……………………………………………………………………………15
Convergence ……………………………………………………………………………………..18
Accessing and Coding Data on Illicit Activity ……………………………………………..25
Method for Mapping the Network …………………………………………………………….29
The Connected Dark Network …………………………………………………………………34
Analyzing Connectivity and Social Distance ……………………………………………….35
Illicit Activity and Geographic Reach …………………………………………………………41
Dark Network to Global Illicit Market …………………………………………………………49
1992 ……………………………………………………………………………………………….. 49
Difficulties of Explaining Connectivity ……………………………………………………….. 52
Conventional Explanation: Research Scarcity in Failed or Poor States ……………….53
Challenging Conventional Wisdom …………………………………………………………….54
Alternate Hypotheses …………………………………………………………………………….59
Negative Political Control, Comparative Advantage and Strategy ……………………….60
State Sponsorship and the Hidden Hand ……………………………………………………..65
Revolutionary States ………………………………………………………………………………68
Summarizing the Four Explanations ……………………………………………………………69
Hubs of Connectivity in the Illicit Marketplace ………………………………………………..71
Conclusions and Implications …………………………………………………………………….83
Implications ………………………………………………………………………………………..
Appendix A ………………………………………………………………………………………….. 88
https://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/RiskyBusiness_final.pdf
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